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Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 5:48:16 PM

Pavie Princess

Posts: 263
Joined: 5/19/2008
From: The Big Easy, New Orleans
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The latest economic slow down recession/depression clearly has hit the wine and art auction business............the latest Acker Auction was exhibit A...........it was softer than soft and they have another coming auction in Hong Kong that likely will tell us the same news. The question I pose to this board do you look at this as a bad time to buy and drink/collect or do you look at this correction as a time to buy things that were on your wish list but were unaffordable to you 2 yrs ago. I ask this because I have seen huge discounts even is some of the 2005 BDX vintage which has been hitting our shores the last four months. I have bought very little 2006 and 07 BDX futures because my belief is that the Vintages are avg to bad..........and the bordelais have priced both based upon the bubble prices for the great 05 demand. I see already huge price dislocations in different markets I frequent all over the US and in Asia. I have vendors calling me about many 05 futures now being available because their buyers have gone away now..................

question one is .................So do you lay off and wait or do you start buying discounted labels?

question two is ...........Do you look at the paradigm shift as a good or bad thing and why?

I know what my plan of attack is over the next three yrs but I am quite interested to hear what this board will do because it seems we have a nice random sample here of wine buyers, drinkers, and collectors.

< Message edited by Pavie Princess -- 11/12/2008 5:52:43 PM >

Post #: 1

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 5:53:49 PM

RoundersRob

Posts: 751
Joined: 7/1/2006
From: Santa Cruz, CA
Status: online

My cellar, in this case my vinotheque, can only hold a total of 2 more bottles so my cellar is not half full, its all the way full.

I am not interested in buying wine at near the volume that you do, nor do I understand why you do it but hey - if you can drink 6000 bottles before your time is up then more power to you.

(in reply to Pavie Princess)

Post #: 2

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 6:28:53 PM

rbazinet

Posts: 188
Joined: 4/13/2008
From: Toronto, Ontario
Status: offline

Pavie,
I am in Canada, combined with working in the academic sector (we are semi-socialists up here according to “some”), the market hasn’t touched me. If prices drop, I will buy more, but perhaps similar to Rob, somewhere around 100 bottles (not cases) per year.

Being from Canada, I do have to ask how Futures work in other countries. We pay for 50% of the wine upon order and 50% upon receipt. I thought most people paid 100% upon order? Why are people in the US not picking up stuff they essentially (half or fully) paid for?

(in reply to RoundersRob)

Post #: 3

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 6:32:12 PM

rbazinet

Posts: 188
Joined: 4/13/2008
From: Toronto, Ontario
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RoundersRob

My cellar, in this case my vinotheque, can only hold a total of 2 more bottles so my cellar is not half full, its all the way full.

I am not interested in buying wine at near the volume that you do, nor do I understand why you do it but hey - if you can drink 6000 bottles before your time is up then more power to you.

Rob,
I was able take a couple German bottles from my rack and stuff them in the small place beside the cooling unit, on both sides. Cleared up room for 4-6 more bottles.
I am saturated.

(in reply to RoundersRob)

Post #: 4

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 6:37:56 PM

JohnNezlek

Posts: 218
Joined: 12/14/2006
From: Gloucester, Virginia
Status: offline

Dear PP,

I had been thinking of a similar post -- so great minds think alike.

My sense is that prices are softening (at least in the US). For example, I just bought a '99 Pichon-Baron for $45. Although I had not been tracking that particular bottle, my sense is that $45 was less than it had been priced in the past. Vinfolio just put a whole bunch of wines on sale -- some for considerably less than the "normal retail". In talking with merchants, the general tone is neutral -- today someone said that sales had been "consistent" -- whatever in the hell that means. Given the breadth of the economic downturn, it seems that it would be impossible for the wine-biz not to be affected.

I think the extent to which merchants and collectors disposing of cellars are willing to accept lower prices remains a question, but they must be feeling the downward pressure on prices. Although I am not familiar with the type of margins/mark-ups most retailers put on their wines, I feel confident that it is considerable, which leaves room for prices to decrease. Those selling wine in the aftermarket are often selling wines they bought some time ago, often for meaningfully less than they are expecting to receive them -- once again, there is room for prices to decline.

If people who are holding wine are selling them to get cash because cash is hard to come by these days, it only makes sense that they are in the weaker position. Moreover, this is all accentuated (at least in the US) by the decline of the Euro.

I buy to drink, not to invest, and for me, I am quite interested to see what the near term brings. I suspect there will be bargains.

Cheers,

John

_____________________________

Too many wines, too little time.

(in reply to RoundersRob)

Post #: 5

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 6:44:57 PM

deb293

Posts: 294
Joined: 8/24/2005
Status: offline

Would love to buy wine at a discount. Wish I had a place to put it.

(in reply to Pavie Princess)

Post #: 6

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 6:46:37 PM

RoundersRob

Posts: 751
Joined: 7/1/2006
From: Santa Cruz, CA
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: rbazinet

quote:

ORIGINAL: RoundersRob

My cellar, in this case my vinotheque, can only hold a total of 2 more bottles so my cellar is not half full, its all the way full.

I am not interested in buying wine at near the volume that you do, nor do I understand why you do it but hey - if you can drink 6000 bottles before your time is up then more power to you.

Rob,
I was able take a couple German bottles from my rack and stuff them in the small place beside the cooling unit, on both sides. Cleared up room for 4-6 more bottles.
I am saturated.

I could take the few whites I have and stick them in the fridge if something needed to be purchased. :)

(in reply to rbazinet)

Post #: 7

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 6:49:09 PM

rbazinet

Posts: 188
Joined: 4/13/2008
From: Toronto, Ontario
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RoundersRob

quote:

ORIGINAL: rbazinet

quote:

ORIGINAL: RoundersRob

My cellar, in this case my vinotheque, can only hold a total of 2 more bottles so my cellar is not half full, its all the way full.

I am not interested in buying wine at near the volume that you do, nor do I understand why you do it but hey - if you can drink 6000 bottles before your time is up then more power to you.

Rob,
I was able take a couple German bottles from my rack and stuff them in the small place beside the cooling unit, on both sides. Cleared up room for 4-6 more bottles.
I am saturated.

I could take the few whites I have and stick them in the fridge if something needed to be purchased. :)

Hmmmm ……. Brilliant! Thanks.

(in reply to RoundersRob)

Post #: 8

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 6:59:27 PM

jhannah27

Posts: 523
Joined: 6/9/2008
From: Anaheim, CA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: rbazinet

Rob,
I was able take a couple German bottles from my rack and stuff them in the small place beside the cooling unit, on both sides. Cleared up room for 4-6 more bottles.
I am saturated.

Problem is that half Rob's Vinoteque is big fat Pinot bottles. Very little German...if any?

_____________________________

"Quickly! Bring me a beaker of wine, so that I may wet my mind and say something clever."
Aristophanes 450 - 385 b.c.

(in reply to rbazinet)

Post #: 9

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 7:00:22 PM

annerk

Posts: 255
Joined: 10/16/2008
From: Central Florida
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: RoundersRob

quote:

ORIGINAL: rbazinet

quote:

ORIGINAL: RoundersRob

My cellar, in this case my vinotheque, can only hold a total of 2 more bottles so my cellar is not half full, its all the way full.

I am not interested in buying wine at near the volume that you do, nor do I understand why you do it but hey - if you can drink 6000 bottles before your time is up then more power to you.

Rob,
I was able take a couple German bottles from my rack and stuff them in the small place beside the cooling unit, on both sides. Cleared up room for 4-6 more bottles.
I am saturated.

I could take the few whites I have and stick them in the fridge if something needed to be purchased. :)

I've already done that...

I've got two cases on their way and no place to put them. A half case is currently sitting in a friends basement in another state, and I'm thinking about asking if I can just leave it there for now, as I was planning on laying that all down for at least five years.

(in reply to RoundersRob)

Post #: 10

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 7:10:22 PM

Serge Birbrair

Posts: 1563
Joined: 4/23/2006
From: Boca Raton, Florida
Status: online

why buy ANYTHING now? EVERYTHING is getting deflated: stocks, bonds, gold, oil, economy.

I sit on the pile of cash and will gladly buy wine from collectors crushed by the mountains of debt and no income. They are getting nervous today, they will throw wine at you in the next few months/years. Economy is not getting better any time soon, the patient ones with cash will be rewarded.

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Post #: 11

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 7:13:28 PM

RoundersRob

Posts: 751
Joined: 7/1/2006
From: Santa Cruz, CA
Status: online

Bravo Serge! Now you and your 'assets' need to get out here for a visit sometime soon!

(in reply to Serge Birbrair)

Post #: 12

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 7:22:04 PM

Serge Birbrair

Posts: 1563
Joined: 4/23/2006
From: Boca Raton, Florida
Status: online

Rob, we'll be in Las Vegas in January. Once $800 suites at Venetian now go for $119. I like deflation. Care to join us?

_____________________________

Do you really think you understand terroir!? -

(in reply to RoundersRob)

Post #: 13

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 7:48:33 PM

RoundersRob

Posts: 751
Joined: 7/1/2006
From: Santa Cruz, CA
Status: online

Whats the dates?

(in reply to Serge Birbrair)

Post #: 14

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 8:46:16 PM

jhannah27

Posts: 523
Joined: 6/9/2008
From: Anaheim, CA
Status: offline

I like Vegas...

_____________________________

"Quickly! Bring me a beaker of wine, so that I may wet my mind and say something clever."
Aristophanes 450 - 385 b.c.

(in reply to RoundersRob)

Post #: 15

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 8:51:48 PM

RoundersRob

Posts: 751
Joined: 7/1/2006
From: Santa Cruz, CA
Status: online

Jeremy... The six of us in Vegas, even for just a dinner...... Seriously fine time.

(in reply to jhannah27)

Post #: 16

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 8:58:48 PM

jhannah27

Posts: 523
Joined: 6/9/2008
From: Anaheim, CA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RoundersRob

Jeremy... The six of us in Vegas, even for just a dinner...... Seriously fine time.

I'm not scared

_____________________________

"Quickly! Bring me a beaker of wine, so that I may wet my mind and say something clever."
Aristophanes 450 - 385 b.c.

(in reply to RoundersRob)

Post #: 17

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/12/2008 9:28:01 PM

NiklasW

Posts: 509
Joined: 10/13/2007
From: Finland
Status: online

The joys of living in a land with a state owned alcohol monopoly. No discounts. Bottles on sale at initial price until sold, even if it takes years. Blah.

OK, the very last bottles might be discounted, a couple of euros.

(in reply to jhannah27)

Post #: 18

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 12:11:40 AM

grafstrb

Posts: 507
Joined: 11/6/2007
From: Los Angeles, via Minnesota
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Myself, the wife, and friends will be in Vegas the weekend of Jan. 17th ... booked a room in MGM grand for $110 a night!! Ridiculous! Hey, we could all get into lots of good trouble out there! ... who's in? Serge, when you gonna be in Vegas? Would be nice to at least meet up and say "hi" ... or, as a good friend likes to put it, "drink till we can't see no more"!

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RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 12:19:19 AM

grafstrb

Posts: 507
Joined: 11/6/2007
From: Los Angeles, via Minnesota
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Pavie,

To answer your inquiry, since I'm totally addicted to buying wine I view this economic downturn as an excellent time to buy ... over time, prices of wine are only going up ... over time, my taste in wine is [unfortunately] getting more expensive, so I figure now's a great time to buy wine at cheaper prices than I would inevitably pay later. The only problem I see with this is that I have almost nowhere to put this wine. I'm already considering another wine cabinet purchase (which I very casually "threw out there" to my wife the other day ... surprisingly, she merely said "i'm not paying for it!" ... perhaps I was a bit too casual, as she didn't seem to consider for even one second that I may be serious ... I was very honest in that moment in remarking that I would of course probably fill the frickin' thing up in 8 mo. flat ... ground has been broken ... I digress) ... even today, I bought four splits (I rationalized to myself: "hey, they're splits, you got room for those ... somewhere") ... 3x '05 Guiraud and 1x '03 Lafaurie ... I'm not sure I even answered your question ... perhaps I did?

< Message edited by grafstrb -- 11/13/2008 12:20:12 AM >

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RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 12:38:24 AM

Colonel Lawrence

Posts: 2093
Joined: 4/24/2006
From: Arabia
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Princess,
I'm thinking along the lines of Brian.
I refused to buy many 2005, especially the top echelon Bordeaux, because they were ridiculously priced.
I will see what transpires over the next few months (in all markets) and buy if a great opportunity arises.
I say 'great' advisedly, because you will have noticed that the stock market has not yet bottomed, and I suspect nor has the wine market.
The dealers will attempt to keep prices stable, but there will be opportunities - if you have the cash.
Many people will be sitting on devalued assets and are likely to be cautious in liquidating them to buy a different asset class.
I actually believe US property will do better than wine over the medium term (but I've been wrong before).
L.

(in reply to grafstrb)

Post #: 21

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 1:08:08 AM

jhannah27

Posts: 523
Joined: 6/9/2008
From: Anaheim, CA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: grafstrb

Myself, the wife, and friends will be in Vegas the weekend of Jan. 17th ... booked a room in MGM grand for $110 a night!! Ridiculous! Hey, we could all get into lots of good trouble out there! ... who's in? Serge, when you gonna be in Vegas? Would be nice to at least meet up and say "hi" ... or, as a good friend likes to put it, "drink till we can't see no more"!

I was just at the MGM in October and found a rate for $75/night there. I was there for my brother's birthday and he had set up a group rate that wasn't even as good as what I had found online.

I know this was Serge's thing, but I always say, the more the merrier when in Vegas, so give me a time and a place out there and I will do my damndest to make it!

_____________________________

"Quickly! Bring me a beaker of wine, so that I may wet my mind and say something clever."
Aristophanes 450 - 385 b.c.

(in reply to grafstrb)

Post #: 22

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 2:11:07 AM

Serge Birbrair

Posts: 1563
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From: Boca Raton, Florida
Status: online

I didn't buy the tickets yet, but was planning from 11th to 16th. I'd rather travel on weekend when stock market is closed. I am flexable and can come any weekdays in January. Can we all get together?

_____________________________

Do you really think you understand terroir!? -

(in reply to jhannah27)

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RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 4:42:49 AM

pjaines

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From: London
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PP - I'm leaving 2006 and 2007 Bordeaux well alone for now, although if i see something while I am in France in one of the many well stocked supermarkets then I will pick it up if the price is fair. I'm thinking 2nd wines and wines like Figeac, Lagrange - wines that are not crazily priced in the first place. In the bad years I will still try and pick up a few bottles of the better wines LLC for example.

I am willing to sit around and let prices drop then go on some retrospective buying - getting hold of some 2000 and 2001 for drinking reasonably soon.

2005 was just too stupid with regards to prices and 2006 and 2007 prices were pegged too close to the 2005 prices.

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-- Paul

(in reply to Serge Birbrair)

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RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 6:34:44 AM

rbazinet

Posts: 188
Joined: 4/13/2008
From: Toronto, Ontario
Status: offline

I am kind of struck by people not picking up their Futures. How does this work in the US? Do you pay half or all of it up front?

(in reply to Pavie Princess)

Post #: 25

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 7:06:50 AM

fingers

Posts: 736
Joined: 8/26/2006
From: Santa Ana, CA
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we're already planning a Valentine Weekend trip to Vegas, if anyone cares to meet and drink that weekend. I might also be able to go in January if it means I can share a glass of Rkatsiteli with Serge.!

(in reply to rbazinet)

Post #: 26

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 7:21:29 AM

jhannah27

Posts: 523
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From: Anaheim, CA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Serge Birbrair

I didn't buy the tickets yet, but was planning from 11th to 16th. I'd rather travel on weekend when stock market is closed. I am flexable and can come any weekdays in January. Can we all get together?

Now I know why you are going to be out there that weekend!

http://www.adultentertainmentexpo.com/

I say go the following weekend. That weekend can be crazy because it is also the same weekend as the Consumer Electronics Show.

_____________________________

"Quickly! Bring me a beaker of wine, so that I may wet my mind and say something clever."
Aristophanes 450 - 385 b.c.

(in reply to Serge Birbrair)

Post #: 27

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 7:24:32 AM

fingers

Posts: 736
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From: Santa Ana, CA
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To me, the money isn't spent until the bottle is consumed. So I think the biggest behavorial change is that I'm more inclined to drink my $8-$12 gems everyday and hold on to age-worthy stuff longer into drinking windows. I mean, as long as it's in the cellar, I haven't "spent" the money. I only expect to decrease buying slightly by being more discerning and focused and not giving in to impluse quite so easily. (Yeah, sure)

_____________________________

"A glass of wine is great refreshment after a hard days work."

Ludwig Van Beethoven

(in reply to Pavie Princess)

Post #: 28

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 7:26:34 AM

Wrighty

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If I've got some cash and see a good deal I'll buy. Likewise if I get a good offer on stuff I've got I'll sell. So I guess pretty much as usual

Wrighty

(in reply to fingers)

Post #: 29

RE: Is your glass or cellar half full or half empty? - 11/13/2008 7:34:36 AM

annerk

Posts: 255
Joined: 10/16/2008
From: Central Florida
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: rbazinet

I am kind of struck by people not picking up their Futures. How does this work in the US? Do you pay half or all of it up front?

Usually you pay all up front. Then when it's released, those with allocations may make additional purchases. It's those additional purchases that aren't being taken. It's helped me to clear a few lists I didn't expect to see anytime soon.

As to the subject of travel, my husband and I had been planning a trip to Napa in late winter. We had scrapped it a couple of months ago, as it was going to cost more than we wanted to spend. We have now begun to look at it again. Where there were no frequent flier seats open two months ago, they are wide open now. (With the caveat of flying into SFO rather than OAK, I can handle that minor inconvenience.) Napa hotels, B&B's, and Inn's seem to have cut their prices by 20-40%, and are offering additional specials in the off-season--buy 2 get 1 types of deals. We're now thinking that we can spend five days in Napa for under $2000 in hotels, car rental, tasting fees, and meals. Of course we won't be eating at French Laundry, but we can save that for a longer future visit.

(in reply to rbazinet)

Post #: 30