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Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 4:56:49 AM   
khmark7

 

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Did i miss something....i don't see these for sale most anywhere in the USA. 2019 futures normally would be rolling out this time of year as well, only this pandemic of course. Tariffs?

So somewhere & somehow the demand for these wines must be changing and perhaps not just the prices but also some of the current uber ripe styles coming out of Bordeaux may change? Thoughts?

2018 was described as "too much of a good thing" by one American wine rep. They must be 15% alcohol....yikes.

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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 6:09:07 AM   
Hooters

 

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2018 has been and gone over here.

2019 is on hold at the moment. Not sure if I'll get banned for posting this but BBR put up an article about what's happening here

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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 6:13:29 AM   
Paul852

 

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Can't see why you would get banned for that - BBR is a very reputable distributor. One of the biggest distributors in HK (Kerry Wines) has recently put out a note saying something very similar (albeit by email, not on their webpage).

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Post #: 3
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 6:19:11 AM   
Hooters

 

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I couldn't recall if links to retailers were allowed and as I'm supposed to be working didn't go and re-read the rules. Right, better do some of that said work so I can justify raiding the cellar again tonight...

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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 6:20:44 AM   
CranBurgundy

 

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There is no future for Bordeaux. It's getting WAY too hot. In a few years, the good European Cab / Merlot blends will be coming out of Estonia & Finland.

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Vote NO on Proposition S1ct1516 "BAN the CRAN!" this Election Day.

“Let it be recorded: henceforth, December 15 shall be known as 'The Day of Dennis'.” - Prof. Ken "KPB" Birman, 12/17/23

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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 8:51:12 AM   
khmark7

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: CranBurgundy

There is no future for Bordeaux. It's getting WAY too hot. In a few years, the good European Cab / Merlot blends will be coming out of Estonia & Finland.


Loire is more than suitable.

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Post #: 6
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 8:54:46 AM   
khmark7

 

Posts: 11427
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hooters

2018 has been and gone over here.

2019 is on hold at the moment. Not sure if I'll get banned for posting this but BBR put up an article about what's happening here


Thanks for the link - i had not done much research as it just dawned upon me today.

As far as 2018 Bordeaux are concerned i believe the ongoing tariff dilemma is causing a fallout and perhaps why retailers are not even offering at the moment.

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"a rogue Provence rouge of unknown provenance." author grafstrb

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Post #: 7
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 11:14:55 AM   
lockestep

 

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I think most retailers offering futures rely a great deal on the tasting notes from professionals. With each wine future offered by Total Wine, for example, come scores from WA or Vinous or if it is really sketchy Wine Spectator.
Even the old time wine merchants who taste themselves are stuck in home port, so they can't create an offering.
The tariff potential doesn't help, but I think the lack of knowledge is the big roadblock.

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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 11:35:54 AM   
skifree

 

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Total Wine still has their 2018 Futures listed on their website. https://concierge.totalwine.com/bordeaux-futures



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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 4/15/2020 12:28:01 PM   
khmark7

 

Posts: 11427
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quote:

ORIGINAL: lockestep

I think most retailers offering futures rely a great deal on the tasting notes from professionals. With each wine future offered by Total Wine, for example, come scores from WA or Vinous or if it is really sketchy Wine Spectator.
Even the old time wine merchants who taste themselves are stuck in home port, so they can't create an offering.
The tariff potential doesn't help, but I think the lack of knowledge is the big roadblock.


I don't think anything has even been released at this point for 2019.

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"a rogue Provence rouge of unknown provenance." author grafstrb

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Post #: 10
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/28/2020 2:59:06 PM   
recotte

 

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I just received my first offer on any 2019, specifically for Pontet-Canet. $79.25/bottle, vs. the initial offer price of $120/bottle for the 2018. That's a pretty hefty drop.

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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/28/2020 4:02:56 PM   
skifree

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: recotte

I just received my first offer on any 2019, specifically for Pontet-Canet. $79.25/bottle, vs. the initial offer price of $120/bottle for the 2018. That's a pretty hefty drop.


I got the same offer - this is $9 less than the 2012's that I bought in May of 2013! The little info I have read (James Suckling had some 2019 samples shipped to him in Hong Kong, and Bill Blatch always writes a detailed report of each vintage in Bordeaux) points to 2019 being much a much better vintage than 2012.

There was a catch to my offer - it was pre-tariff. So adding 25 % to $79 gets the price back over $100 per bottle. Or one can hope the tariff is rescinded by 2022.

I am a big fan of P-C wines. Good for them to set a potential benchmark price.

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Post #: 12
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/28/2020 4:24:47 PM   
jonboy74

 

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who was your offer from? I just posted up in the tariff thread that Millesima's T&Cs indicate a fixed price offering, only charging shipping and sales tax upon receipt. When I asked what their plan was for tariffs they said it was to hold the wine in France until they go away...

re-posting here if you don't feel like going back to that thread

Futures
An order for wines sold as "futures" for delivery at a future date must normally be paid at the time of order by a deposit equal to the full value of the merchandise. Customers are advised that some states may prohibit or restrict such "futures" sales, and it is their responsibility to be informed of and abide by such state laws. Following processing of a "futures" order and receipt of deposit, a pro forma invoice will be mailed or emailed to the customer's billing address. This invoice together with proof of payment will guarantee ownership of the wines. Once the invoice has been mailed and the deposit has been received, the order is final and cannot be cancelled or modified. Additional "futures" wines may be ordered, but they will be invoiced and must be paid separately. Projected arrival and delivery dates for "futures" are estimates only and may vary by several months, depending upon the timing of the release from the estate and other factors. When the wines are ready for delivery, the customer will be contacted by Millesima USA LLC to confirm delivery arrangements and to advise of the sales tax and shipping charges, if any, which apply at that time. The customer will have 30 days from date of notification to pay any and all remaining charges and either take delivery of the merchandise or pick up the wines at the Millesima USA LLC retail premise. No "futures" merchandise shall be delivered or may be picked up until and unless all outstanding charges are paid in full. Millesima USA LLC does not store wines for customers at its retail premise or elsewhere. If the customer fails to pay all remaining charges by 30 days from date of notification of availability, Millesima USA LLC reserves the right to cancel the order. Millesima USA LLC will, in the case of such cancelation, refund the full amount of the original deposit paid by the customer. In the event that any wines ordered as "futures" by a customer are unavailable at the time of delivery, Millesima USA LLC will refund the full value of any and all such "futures" wines as originally invoiced to the customer.

(in reply to skifree)
Post #: 13
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/28/2020 4:25:53 PM   
racerchris

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: skifree


quote:

ORIGINAL: recotte

I just received my first offer on any 2019, specifically for Pontet-Canet. $79.25/bottle, vs. the initial offer price of $120/bottle for the 2018. That's a pretty hefty drop.


I got the same offer - this is $9 less than the 2012's that I bought in May of 2013! The little info I have read (James Suckling had some 2019 samples shipped to him in Hong Kong, and Bill Blatch always writes a detailed report of each vintage in Bordeaux) points to 2019 being much a much better vintage than 2012.

There was a catch to my offer - it was pre-tariff. So adding 25 % to $79 gets the price back over $100 per bottle. Or one can hope the tariff is rescinded by 2022.

I am a big fan of P-C wines. Good for them to set a potential benchmark price.

79 x 1.25 = 98.75

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Post #: 14
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/28/2020 5:45:48 PM   
khmark7

 

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I will hold out until the UGC tasting in January of 2021 where i can taste the 2018 wines myself....or 2022 for the 2019 vintage. No hurry to purchase and my "cellar overfloweth" as musedir might say.....


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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/28/2020 6:14:52 PM   
Ibetian

 

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The only 2018 I bought prearrival was VCC. The only 2019 I will buy EP will be VCC.

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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/28/2020 10:34:04 PM   
pclin

 

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From: Exile in my own country
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ibetian

The only 2018 I bought prearrival was VCC. The only 2019 I will buy EP will be VCC.



I sort of stop buying VCC EP since 2016 vintage, but if the price is right for 2019, may just buy 12 halves.

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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/29/2020 12:16:34 AM   
Paul852

 

Posts: 2656
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From: Hong Kong
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quote:

ORIGINAL: skifree


quote:

ORIGINAL: recotte

I just received my first offer on any 2019, specifically for Pontet-Canet. $79.25/bottle, vs. the initial offer price of $120/bottle for the 2018. That's a pretty hefty drop.


I got the same offer - this is $9 less than the 2012's that I bought in May of 2013! The little info I have read (James Suckling had some 2019 samples shipped to him in Hong Kong, and Bill Blatch always writes a detailed report of each vintage in Bordeaux) points to 2019 being much a much better vintage than 2012.

There was a catch to my offer - it was pre-tariff. So adding 25 % to $79 gets the price back over $100 per bottle. Or one can hope the tariff is rescinded by 2022.

I am a big fan of P-C wines. Good for them to set a potential benchmark price.

I'm intrigued by this whole futures/EP thing...

If I understand correctly, in 2013 you paid US$88.25 per bottle for P-C 2012.

If you had simply put that $88.25 in an S&P500 tracker fund it would be worth ~US$165 today. And you can currently buy P-C 2012 for US$67, so you could buy nearly 2.5 times as many bottles now with that money as you did in 2013. Even if you'd just left it under the mattress you'd have saved $21 per bottle.

I must be missing something obvious here. Please could someone enlighten me?

< Message edited by Paul852 -- 5/29/2020 1:47:49 AM >

(in reply to skifree)
Post #: 18
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/29/2020 4:11:55 AM   
khmark7

 

Posts: 11427
Joined: 7/6/2008
From: Chicago suburbs
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Paul852

quote:

ORIGINAL: skifree


quote:

ORIGINAL: recotte

I just received my first offer on any 2019, specifically for Pontet-Canet. $79.25/bottle, vs. the initial offer price of $120/bottle for the 2018. That's a pretty hefty drop.


I got the same offer - this is $9 less than the 2012's that I bought in May of 2013! The little info I have read (James Suckling had some 2019 samples shipped to him in Hong Kong, and Bill Blatch always writes a detailed report of each vintage in Bordeaux) points to 2019 being much a much better vintage than 2012.

There was a catch to my offer - it was pre-tariff. So adding 25 % to $79 gets the price back over $100 per bottle. Or one can hope the tariff is rescinded by 2022.

I am a big fan of P-C wines. Good for them to set a potential benchmark price.

I'm intrigued by this whole futures/EP thing...

If I understand correctly, in 2013 you paid US$88.25 per bottle for P-C 2012.

If you had simply put that $88.25 in an S&P500 tracker fund it would be worth ~US$165 today. And you can currently buy P-C 2012 for US$67, so you could buy nearly 2.5 times as many bottles now with that money as you did in 2013. Even if you'd just left it under the mattress you'd have saved $21 per bottle.

I must be missing something obvious here. Please could someone enlighten me?


You are spot on Paul. That is assuming you can find the wine at auction, because it's very unlikely you will find the 2012 P-C in any stores.

Wine is not a good investment, it's much better purchased for consumption.

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(in reply to Paul852)
Post #: 19
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/29/2020 4:22:43 AM   
CranBurgundy

 

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Whether intended or not, Paul has biased the example by using 2 different vintages to make his point.

< Message edited by CranBurgundy -- 5/29/2020 4:24:09 AM >


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Vote NO on Proposition S1ct1516 "BAN the CRAN!" this Election Day.

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(in reply to khmark7)
Post #: 20
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/29/2020 7:24:04 AM   
Paul852

 

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Eh? I didn't intend to - I referred only to 2012 P-C

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RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/29/2020 7:27:36 AM   
Paul852

 

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From: Hong Kong
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quote:

ORIGINAL: khmark7

You are spot on Paul. That is assuming you can find the wine at auction, because it's very unlikely you will find the 2012 P-C in any stores.

wine-searcher.com pro lists about 100 stores in the USA offering 2012 P-C (albeit at prices from US$87.99 upwards), and about 40 stores in Hong Kong (from US$67 up).



< Message edited by Paul852 -- 5/29/2020 7:37:04 AM >

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Post #: 22
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/29/2020 7:51:39 PM   
skifree

 

Posts: 3416
Joined: 3/14/2010
From: SE King County, Washington
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jonboy74

who was your offer from? I just posted up in the tariff thread that Millesima's T&Cs indicate a fixed price offering, only charging shipping and sales tax upon receipt. When I asked what their plan was for tariffs they said it was to hold the wine in France until they go away...

re-posting here if you don't feel like going back to that thread

Futures
An order for wines sold as "futures" for delivery at a future date must normally be paid at the time of order by a deposit equal to the full value of the merchandise. Customers are advised that some states may prohibit or restrict such "futures" sales, and it is their responsibility to be informed of and abide by such state laws. Following processing of a "futures" order and receipt of deposit, a pro forma invoice will be mailed or emailed to the customer's billing address. This invoice together with proof of payment will guarantee ownership of the wines. Once the invoice has been mailed and the deposit has been received, the order is final and cannot be cancelled or modified. Additional "futures" wines may be ordered, but they will be invoiced and must be paid separately. Projected arrival and delivery dates for "futures" are estimates only and may vary by several months, depending upon the timing of the release from the estate and other factors. When the wines are ready for delivery, the customer will be contacted by Millesima USA LLC to confirm delivery arrangements and to advise of the sales tax and shipping charges, if any, which apply at that time. The customer will have 30 days from date of notification to pay any and all remaining charges and either take delivery of the merchandise or pick up the wines at the Millesima USA LLC retail premise. No "futures" merchandise shall be delivered or may be picked up until and unless all outstanding charges are paid in full. Millesima USA LLC does not store wines for customers at its retail premise or elsewhere. If the customer fails to pay all remaining charges by 30 days from date of notification of availability, Millesima USA LLC reserves the right to cancel the order. Millesima USA LLC will, in the case of such cancelation, refund the full amount of the original deposit paid by the customer. In the event that any wines ordered as "futures" by a customer are unavailable at the time of delivery, Millesima USA LLC will refund the full value of any and all such "futures" wines as originally invoiced to the customer.


The email I received was from Flickinger's. I did not post in your other thread because I have received 3 cases of 2017 EP from them so far tariff free. So they have honored their original offers in spades. If they make an offer for the 2019's and are clear about the risk of a potential tariff before I buy, then I have no issue with them whatsoever. Quality wine purveyor.

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Post #: 23
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/29/2020 10:16:38 PM   
jonboy74

 

Posts: 279
Joined: 7/16/2019
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Paul852

quote:

ORIGINAL: skifree


quote:

ORIGINAL: recotte

I just received my first offer on any 2019, specifically for Pontet-Canet. $79.25/bottle, vs. the initial offer price of $120/bottle for the 2018. That's a pretty hefty drop.


I got the same offer - this is $9 less than the 2012's that I bought in May of 2013! The little info I have read (James Suckling had some 2019 samples shipped to him in Hong Kong, and Bill Blatch always writes a detailed report of each vintage in Bordeaux) points to 2019 being much a much better vintage than 2012.

There was a catch to my offer - it was pre-tariff. So adding 25 % to $79 gets the price back over $100 per bottle. Or one can hope the tariff is rescinded by 2022.

I am a big fan of P-C wines. Good for them to set a potential benchmark price.

I'm intrigued by this whole futures/EP thing...

If I understand correctly, in 2013 you paid US$88.25 per bottle for P-C 2012.

If you had simply put that $88.25 in an S&P500 tracker fund it would be worth ~US$165 today. And you can currently buy P-C 2012 for US$67, so you could buy nearly 2.5 times as many bottles now with that money as you did in 2013. Even if you'd just left it under the mattress you'd have saved $21 per bottle.

I must be missing something obvious here. Please could someone enlighten me?


you're missing the tax bill on your capital gains on your S&P500 investment and the certainty of price for the wine. There are probably several examples of EP prices that surpassed the S&P500 gains on an after-tax basis. If i were inclined to sell, I know I've doubled my money on my 2016 Leoville Barton EP's since I bought them.

(in reply to Paul852)
Post #: 24
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/31/2020 4:50:53 AM   
Paul852

 

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From: Hong Kong
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Ah - OK - I've spent so long living in a place with no taxes on capital gains or on dividends that I neglected to consider that.

But unless the tax is over 50% you'd still be better off buying 2012 P-C when it's ready to drink.

I can buy 2016 Leoville Barton for US$103. A Google search says that it was €63.60 ex-Bordeaux, so I don't quite see the "doubling" of price. And wouldn't you have to pay capital gains tax if you sold them?

< Message edited by Paul852 -- 5/31/2020 4:58:44 AM >

(in reply to jonboy74)
Post #: 25
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/31/2020 9:18:58 AM   
jonboy74

 

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I think your original point was that you would have been better off buying the S&P500, selling the investment then buying the wine. My point was that there would be taxes on that sale. But the right comparative would be to look at the price of wine after you sold the stock, so the gain/tax on a hypothetical sale of the wine wouldn't be relevant since that's the ultimate resting spot for the invested capital.

LB2016 is retailing for 180 at K&L, not sure what the auction price is. I paid $100 at the futures price. The S&P over the same period is up 10-15%. So in this particular case the S&P investment rolled into LB2016 wouldn't have been as good as just buying it EP.

This of course isn't always the case. I'm afraid all of my 2018 EP purchases are going to be on the losing side of this argument...

(in reply to Paul852)
Post #: 26
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/31/2020 2:13:13 PM   
skifree

 

Posts: 3416
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From: SE King County, Washington
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Paul852

Ah - OK - I've spent so long living in a place with no taxes on capital gains or on dividends that I neglected to consider that.

But unless the tax is over 50% you'd still be better off buying 2012 P-C when it's ready to drink.

I can buy 2016 Leoville Barton for US$103. A Google search says that it was €63.60 ex-Bordeaux, so I don't quite see the "doubling" of price. And wouldn't you have to pay capital gains tax if you sold them?


For me, I buy EP first tranche to guarantee the best provenance possible - shipped to the U.S. not long after bottling, and then passed through the system to me as soon as possible given shipping windows. Sometimes I make money (my case of 2009 P-C, for example) and sometimes not (the 2012 P-C), but that is moot. This is my hobby $, not my investment $, and I want the best quality wine possible in my cellar. I always buy my Betz on release straight from the winery, for example, even if it is a touch cheaper on the open market. The provenance is pristine, and I get exactly the amount I want.

If you surmise I don't buy much wine at auction, you are correct! But cheers to each of us enjoying the hunt for great wine in our own way.

_____________________________

So much wine, so little time

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Post #: 27
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/31/2020 6:21:51 PM   
khmark7

 

Posts: 11427
Joined: 7/6/2008
From: Chicago suburbs
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Paul852

quote:

ORIGINAL: khmark7

You are spot on Paul. That is assuming you can find the wine at auction, because it's very unlikely you will find the 2012 P-C in any stores.

wine-searcher.com pro lists about 100 stores in the USA offering 2012 P-C (albeit at prices from US$87.99 upwards), and about 40 stores in Hong Kong (from US$67 up).




That's pretty good. The large stores around here don't always carry that many back vintages, but P-C is a large producer so they can be found more easily than many of the smaller Bordeaux producers by comparison. Also, wine-searcher is nice, but our stupid shipping laws make it impossible to purchase wine from out of state and ship it across the USA....the land of capitalism has it's stupid laws and anti-consumerism in weird ways.

_____________________________

"a rogue Provence rouge of unknown provenance." author grafstrb

(in reply to Paul852)
Post #: 28
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 5/31/2020 8:30:09 PM   
pclin

 

Posts: 1911
Joined: 5/29/2012
From: Exile in my own country
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: khmark7


quote:

ORIGINAL: CranBurgundy

There is no future for Bordeaux. It's getting WAY too hot. In a few years, the good European Cab / Merlot blends will be coming out of Estonia & Finland.


Loire is more than suitable.



That’s what I believe too, recent vintages in Loire have been good.

_____________________________

Alles hat ein Ende, nur die Wurst hat zwei

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Post #: 29
RE: Bordeaux 2018-2019 futures - 6/1/2020 1:12:08 AM   
Paul852

 

Posts: 2656
Joined: 6/27/2018
From: Hong Kong
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: skifree
But cheers to each of us enjoying the hunt for great wine in our own way.

Indeed - no problem at all with that! We each have our own individual preferences and requirements. I was just checking that I hadn't somehow fundamentally misunderstood the financial side of it.

(in reply to skifree)
Post #: 30
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