KPB
Posts: 4654
Joined: 11/25/2012 From: Ithaca, New York Status: offline
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Eduardo, I actually don't follow the solar panel hardware side as a product area, but this sounds like a "mashup" of some fundamental physics research at MIT with basic advertising hype. What I can tell you is that there has been a steady but slow advance in the efficiency of solar panel technology (pretty much the same story as any other technology field!) and they definitely do improve over time. The great majority of these panels are manufactured in China, so that part of what you heard would be true whether you buy in 2023 or wait until 2035. Check out this review of advances in solar panels to see a summary of some of the recent ideas people have surfaced. Some of these will make it into production, some will die in the laboratory -- this is the same as with computer technology. Everyone who holds a patent always hypes it as the next really big thing. And then anyone who builds these products has to decide if they should license that patent or not... Elon Musk has a company doing roof tiles (they are shiny but have the same size as normal tiles, like you probably already have on roof) that are actually solar panels. I think they call them "Tesla Solar Tiles". I like the idea, personally, but my houses both have the kind of vinyl roof shingles that come in sheets so this wouldn't be easy for me to install at our summer place (but I'm thinking about what I could do for our main house, where we live the other 9 months of the year). He also is behind one of the battery-wall product lines. I bet this is called "Tesla Power Wall" or something like that. I bet that you do need to periodically hose these down to keep them nice and clean. For sure dust and debris from birds would cut into efficiency. Pricing is weird in the US because of subsidies. Pretty much every state has programs to make the power grid greener, and they take different forms. In the areas nearer to you, there is a huge push to get people to install these things (even if they only heat hot water or run the A/C unit during very sunny days, that can take a lot of stress off the power grid). Here in the frosty north where I live, these programs exist too, but aren't as effective. Instead, there is more of a trend for companies or universities to take otherwise empty fields they own and turn them into large solar farms. Even if you can only trust them to give you stable power at 50% of their theoretical capacity, it can still bring enough green power to the company or campus to really cut the power bill dramatically. So I'm pretty enthusiastic about solar. Wind too, in places with steady windy conditions enough of the time to make it work (like the Cochella Valley in California, or offshore from Martha's Vineyard). The main thing is how predictable they can be -- selling actual power to the actual power grid comes down to a contract to provide X amount of power during particular periods of time, and you end up with a penalty if you fail to deliver. So for the whole game to be viable, as a businessperson, it becomes a question: can I guarantee this? With subsidies, in a place with a lot of sunshine and used for basic things like hot water, it is a super easy call: you need the water to be hot, and if some of the power can be from sunshine, why not? With subsidies, it can become kind of a no-brainer. Same with A/C: if you can power your A/C with solar plus some batteries, even if it only will work in the sunniest parts of the day plus maybe a few hours more off the batteries, why would this not be a good solution? So this is how I see it. Now, last puzzle: Could China itself offer subsidies in some markets? I think definitely they might. Mexico probably lacks the huge national subsidies that are driving these state level ones -- it isn't the style of your government to do things like that in power delivery, unless politics has shifted. But China dominates the manufacture of these things and needs markets for its products. So maybe your local solar panel folks are hearing about a big Chinese subsidy that is coming down the distribution pipeline to Mexico. The Chinese economy did take a hit from Covid. And Mexico is an ideal place to sell these into -- abundant sunshine, very predictable on the whole, increasingly affluent. So I bet that if you poke around, this could explain what you heard!
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Ken Birman The Professor of Brettology
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